Waco Home Prices Fell in July — But the Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story

The July housing numbers for Waco and McLennan County have an obvious headline:

Median home prices were down roughly 7.5% from a year ago.

In the City of Waco, the median sales price was $272,000, down 7.8% from July 2025. Across McLennan County, the median was $286,650, down 7.5%.

Those numbers certainly get your attention.

But they don't necessarily mean what you might think.

Prices Fell — But Inventory Did Too

If home prices were falling because Waco suddenly had far too many homes for sale, we would expect to see inventory climbing rapidly.

That's not what happened in July.

In the City of Waco:

  • Median price: $272,000 — down 7.8%

  • Closed sales: 113 — down 4.2%

  • Active listings: 662 — down 2.7%

  • Days on market: 60

  • Months of inventory: 5.9

Across McLennan County:

  • Median price: $286,650 — down 7.5%

  • Closed sales: 261 — up 5.7%

  • Active listings: 1,290 — down 4.5%

  • Days on market: 63

  • Months of inventory: 5.4

So while prices moved lower, the number of homes available for sale actually declined from a year ago.

And across McLennan County, more homes closed this July than last July.

That's an important distinction.

Did Waco Homes Really Lose 7%–8% of Their Value?

Not necessarily.

Median sales price tells us the midpoint of the homes that sold during a particular period. It does not tell us that every individual home declined by that same percentage.

The mix of homes sold matters.

In July, roughly four out of every ten sales in both Waco and McLennan County occurred between $200,000 and $299,999. A greater concentration of sales at lower price points can pull the median lower without every home in the market losing 7%–8% of its value.

That's one reason we caution against looking at a single market statistic and applying it directly to your own home.

A $225,000 home in Waco may be experiencing a very different market from a $600,000 home in Woodway or a property in Midway ISD.

So What Is Actually Happening?

From what we're seeing, today's market is increasingly price-sensitive.

There are still buyers.

McLennan County's 261 closed sales in July are evidence of that.

But today's buyers aren't behaving like buyers did during the extremely competitive market a few years ago.

Higher monthly payments have made buyers much more careful about:

  • Price

  • Condition

  • Location

  • Needed repairs

  • Overall value

When buyers believe a home is overpriced, many are perfectly comfortable moving on and waiting for another property.

That gives buyers more negotiating leverage even though we don't have an overwhelming supply of homes sitting on the market.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, this may be one of the better negotiating environments we've seen in several years.

Depending on the property and circumstances, buyers may have opportunities to negotiate:

  • Purchase price

  • Repairs

  • Closing costs

  • Seller concessions

  • Closing timelines

But that doesn't mean every seller is desperate or every listing is overpriced.

Well-priced, attractive homes can still stand out.

The difference is that buyers generally have more time and more leverage than they did when multiple-offer situations were commonplace.

Related Reading: Should You Wait to Buy a Home? Here Are the Costs Many Buyers Overlook (July 21, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/should-you-wait-to-buy-a-home-waco-tx/

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, this isn't a great market for putting an ambitious price on a home just to "see what happens."

Buyers have too many alternatives and too little tolerance for obvious overpricing.

Sellers who genuinely want to sell need to be competitive from the beginning on price, condition and presentation.

That doesn't mean giving your house away.

It means understanding that today's buyer is much less likely to chase the seller.

Related Reading: How to Price Your Home in Today's Market (February 17, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/how-to-price-your-home-in-waco-2026/

What About Mortgage Rates?

Affordability remains one of the biggest challenges in the market.

Mortgage rates have not provided buyers with much relief lately, and that continues to put pressure on monthly payments.

Our advice hasn't changed much: don't make a buying or selling decision based solely on the hope that mortgage rates are about to fall dramatically.

If rates eventually move meaningfully lower, great.

But the purchase still needs to make sense based on today's numbers.

Related Reading: The Fed Just Met. What Does That Mean for Mortgage Rates? (June 18, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/fed-just-met-what-does-mean-mortgage-rates/

A Local Perspective

The Waco housing market continues to feel slower and more deliberate than what we became accustomed to a few years ago, but homes are still selling.

The difference is that today's market is making sellers earn the sale again.

For buyers, that creates opportunity.

For sellers, it makes getting the price and strategy right from the beginning much more important.

And broad market statistics only tell part of the story.

The market for your particular home or the type of property you're hoping to buy can look very different from the overall Waco or McLennan County numbers.

If you're considering buying or selling and want to know what's happening in your particular part of the Waco market, we'd be happy to sit down with you and take a closer look.

Related Waco Real Estate Articles

Should You Wait to Buy a Home? Here Are the Costs Many Buyers Overlook (July 21, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/should-you-wait-to-buy-a-home-waco-tx/

How to Price Your Home in Today's Market (February 17, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/how-to-price-your-home-in-waco-2026/

Should You Buy Your Next Home Before Selling Your Current One? (July 7, 2026)
https://www.findwacohomes.com/blog/should-you-buy-your-next-home-selling-your-current-one/